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Distribution Lab

Distribution Lab is the Editor-facing tool for selecting a Probability Director distribution family, authoring parameters, evaluating theory, comparing Bias targets, running isolated Monte Carlo, and sampling an actual registered gameplay Stream.

For Runtime/API concepts and mathematical family behavior, see Distributions.md.


Use Distribution Lab to answer:

  • Which distribution family fits this gameplay variable?
  • How do parameter changes reshape it?
  • What are its analytical statistics?
  • How does Distribution Bias change configured behavior?
  • Do isolated Monte Carlo samples match theory?
  • What is the isolated Lab stream producing?
  • How do PDF and CDF projections differ?
  • How should Custom Weighted outcomes behave?

The Lab exposes:

  • Bernoulli.
  • Binomial.
  • Poisson.
  • Uniform.
  • Triangular.
  • Exponential.
  • Normal.
  • Gamma.
  • Chi-square.
  • Beta.
  • Custom Weighted.

Normal is the approved default selection.


Before successful evaluation, the chart area presents a Family Guide.

It includes:

  • General Distribution Lab purpose.
  • Best general use.
  • When/why to use distributions.
  • A clearly separated selected-family section.
  • Family-specific best use.
  • Game example.
  • Use when.
  • Avoid when.
  • Bias/sampling guidance.
  • Family chooser reference.

The selected family is visually distinct from the general Distribution Lab boilerplate.


Changing Family immediately clears stale:

  • Chart.
  • Result summary.
  • PMF/PDF/CDF presentation.
  • Monte Carlo result.
  • Lab Samples.
  • Export snapshot.

The new Family Guide appears immediately.

A failed evaluation does not restore the previous family’s chart.


Each family exposes only meaningful parameters.

Family Primary authoring
Bernoulli Probability
Binomial Probability, Trials
Poisson Lambda
Uniform Minimum, Maximum
Triangular Minimum, Mode, Maximum
Exponential Rate
Normal Mean, Standard Deviation
Gamma Shape, Scale
Chi-square Degrees of Freedom
Beta Alpha, Beta
Custom Weighted Outcomes / Weights

Inputs are committed through the live/action-time path before Evaluate.


Evaluate analyzes the selected family without consuming a gameplay Stream.

Depending on family/view it may produce:

  • PMF.
  • PDF.
  • CDF.
  • Expected Value.
  • Variance.
  • Base parameters.
  • Configured/Bias parameters.
  • Exact weighted output.

For Bias-capable families:

  • Blue = Base.
  • Green = Configured/Bias.

At zero Bias:

  • Base is shown.
  • A redundant identical Configured series is omitted.

At nonzero Bias:

  • Base remains the authored baseline.
  • Configured reflects the Bias target transformation.

Distribution Lab authors Distribution Bias (%) through the exact Lab parsing path.

For parameter Bias:

Base parameters
+
Explicit target parameters
+
Bias magnitude/direction
=
Configured distribution

The Runtime mathematics remain authoritative.


Family Supported Target controls
Bernoulli Yes Probability endpoint behavior
Binomial Yes Probability endpoint behavior
Poisson Yes Lambda
Uniform Yes Minimum / Maximum
Triangular Yes Minimum / Mode / Maximum
Exponential Yes Rate
Normal Yes Mean / Standard Deviation
Gamma Yes Shape / Scale
Chi-square Yes Degrees of Freedom
Beta Yes Alpha / Beta
Custom Weighted No general parameter target N/A

Custom Weighted is not silently forced into a parameter-Bias model.


CDF is visible for:

  • Uniform.
  • Triangular.
  • Exponential.
  • Normal.
  • Gamma.
  • Chi-square.
  • Beta.

CDF controls are collapsed for:

  • Bernoulli.
  • Binomial.
  • Poisson.
  • Custom Weighted.

The Lab does not fabricate unsupported CDF behavior.


Numeric Custom Weighted supports:

  • Positive integer weights.
  • Negative outcomes.
  • Sparse outcomes.
  • Duplicate outcomes.

Duplicates are canonicalized.

Numeric mode supports exact:

  • PMF.
  • Range analysis.
  • Percentile/quantile.

Symbolic mode uses FName outcome identity.

It supports exact category probabilities.

Disabled because they are not meaningful:

  • Numeric ranges.
  • Quantiles.
  • Numeric ordering.

No lexical ranking is inferred.

The Lab uses a categorical/list presentation rather than inventing false numeric semantics.


For numeric Custom Weighted:

Percentile (%) uses discrete quantile semantics.

  • 0% -> minimum.
  • 100% -> maximum.
  • Interior -> smallest outcome whose CDF reaches the requested exact percentage.

No interpolation.


Numeric Custom Weighted range analysis supports:

  • Inclusive/exclusive lower bound.
  • Inclusive/exclusive upper bound.

Bounds do not snap to support.


Distribution Lab supports isolated Monte Carlo validation.

Monte Carlo does not use the isolated Lab stream.

It owns a temporary standalone Probability Director context/stream.

Modes:

  • Fixed Seed.
  • Secure.

Keyed Monte Carlo is not part of V1.


Trials:

1 ... 10,000,000

Runs are bounded, chunked, and cancellable.


Continuous families use:

64 equal-width display bins

Empirical PDF density:

Count / (Trials * BinWidth)

CDF view reprojects the same aggregate.

Switching PDF/CDF does not resample.


Sample Distribution performs one sample against the Lab-owned isolated Sequential engine. It does not call the selected gameplay subsystem or consume a registered gameplay stream. This is different from Monte Carlo: Sample Distribution adds one local observation, while Monte Carlo owns a separate isolated simulation session.

Start Continuous and Stop sample only the Lab-owned isolated stream at 1–100 samples per second (default 10). Sampling is bounded and nonblocking. It never starts a gameplay-stream operation.

Successful observations accumulate in bounded Lab-local counts. Discrete outcomes retain counts and empirical probability. Continuous families reuse the display bins; samples outside the displayed range remain in the denominator and are reported as outside-range.

The Lab does not perform live Sequential or Keyed distribution samples. For an intentional live probe, use Probability Director Runtime Controls. The Live Stream Probe gate starts disabled. Sequential probes consume values and can change future gameplay outcomes. Keyed probes use the live subsystem’s keyed path without advancing its Sequential cursor, though diagnostics may capture them.

Color Meaning
Blue Base / Theoretical
Green Configured / Bias
Orange Monte Carlo / Empirical
Red Isolated Lab samples

For one configuration:

  • Runtime aggregate remains the same.
  • Monte Carlo aggregate remains the same.
  • View switching changes projection only.

This keeps statistical interpretation coherent.


Color Meaning
Blue Base / Theoretical
Green Configured / Bias
Orange Monte Carlo / Empirical
Red Lab Samples

Where all exist:

Blue -> Green -> Orange -> Red

Titles preserve Family + View.

Runtime example:

Normal PDF - <StreamId>

Monte Carlo without Red:

Normal Monte Carlo PDF - Distribution Lab

Exact online:

Normal PDF

Exact offline:

Normal PDF - Offline

If Red and Orange coexist, Runtime title semantics win.

PIE/GameInstance/map identifiers are not included in the visible title.


Changing Runtime Context or Registered Stream clears the Runtime presentation session:

  • Red aggregate.
  • Last sample.
  • Old stream-tied chart state.
  • Old export snapshot.

It does not reset the gameplay Stream.


Changing a meaningful family parameter:

  • Stops Continuous.
  • Clears stale theory.
  • Clears stale Orange.
  • Clears stale Red.
  • Clears export snapshot.
  • Returns to Guide/result-empty state.

Old empirical data must never be plotted against new theory.


27. Monte Carlo / Continuous Mutual Exclusion

Section titled “27. Monte Carlo / Continuous Mutual Exclusion”

Active Runtime Continuous sampling and active Monte Carlo are mutually exclusive.

Manual Sample is disabled while Continuous is active.

Monte Carlo and Runtime jobs do not run concurrently through one Lab session.


For Keyed Streams:

  • Decision Key is explicit.
  • Occurrence Index is explicit.
  • No hidden counter exists.

Continuous options:

  • Fixed Occurrence.
  • Increment Occurrence.

The Lab may offer bounded recent Decision Keys from current Lab use or sanitized diagnostics.

This is not a Runtime key registry.


Distribution Lab supports:

  • CSV.
  • Markdown.
  • PNG.
  • SVG.
  • Report bundle.

Runtime aggregate export:

DistributionLab-RuntimeSamples.csv

Conceptual fields include:

Outcome
RuntimeStreamCount
RuntimeStreamProbability
RuntimeStreamSampleTotal
TheoreticalTargetProbability
AbsoluteProbabilityError

Conceptual fields include:

BinStart
BinEnd
RuntimeStreamCount
RuntimeStreamProbability
RuntimeStreamDensity
TheoreticalTargetProbability
RuntimeEmpiricalCDF
TheoreticalTargetCDF
RuntimeStreamSampleTotal

Outside-range accounting remains represented by the current export/result model.


Result summary, chart series, and export snapshot derive from the same current evaluation.

Changing configuration invalidates the old snapshot.

An export must never combine:

  • New parameters.
  • Old chart.
  • Old Runtime samples.

Secure sampling/export does not expose:

  • Secure root.
  • Entropy bytes.
  • Key.
  • Nonce.
  • Raw state.
  • Byte position.

Fixed Monte Carlo may report the intentionally authored Fixed Seed.


Visible failures include:

  • Invalid family parameters.
  • Numerical failure.
  • Sampling-limit failure.
  • Missing Runtime Context.
  • Missing Stream.
  • Decision-mode mismatch.
  • Invalid Decision Key.
  • Invalid Custom Weighted entry.
  • Exact capacity failure.

The Lab displays failure instead of restoring stale prior results.


Select Family
-> read Family Guide
-> configure parameters
-> Evaluate
Evaluate Base
-> set targets
-> set Distribution Bias
-> Evaluate
-> compare Blue vs Green
Evaluate
-> Run Monte Carlo
-> compare Orange
Start PIE
-> select Runtime Context
-> select Registered Stream
-> Sample Distribution / Start Continuous
-> inspect Red

No. It is density.

No. It reprojects existing aggregate data.

No. They remain part of the denominator.

No. Orange is isolated Monte Carlo; Red is isolated Lab sampling.

No. Family changes invalidate prior state.

Custom Weighted gets arbitrary parameter Bias

Section titled “Custom Weighted gets arbitrary parameter Bias”

No.


Evaluate
= theory
Monte Carlo
= isolated repeated simulation
Sample Distribution
= one isolated Lab stream sample
Start Continuous
= repeated isolated Lab samples
Blue
= Base
Green
= Configured/Bias
Orange
= Monte Carlo
Red
= Lab Samples